


\documentclass{beamer}

\mode<presentation>
{
\usetheme{Frankfurt} % alternative: Darmstadt

%  \setbeamercovered{transparent} % I prefer invisible to semi-transparent

\setbeamersize{text margin left=0.7cm}
\setbeamersize{text margin right=0.7cm}


}

\usepackage[english]{babel}
\usepackage[latin1]{inputenc}
\usepackage{graphics}

\usepackage{times}
%\usepackage{lmodern}
\usepackage[T1]{fontenc}
% Or whatever. Note that the encoding and the font should match. If T1
% does not look nice, try deleting the line with the fontenc.

\definecolor{mygreen}{rgb}{0,.6,0}

\title{Graphical Summary of FRBSF\\ FAVAR Model Forecasts}

\author{Eric T. Swanson}

\institute[Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco] % (optional, but mostly needed)
{
  Economic Research\\
  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
}

\date{\today}

% If you have a file called "university-logo-filename.xxx", where xxx
% is a graphic format that can be processed by latex or pdflatex,
% resp., then you can add a logo as follows:

%\pgfdeclareimage[height=0.5cm]{university-logo}{figures/frbsf}
%\logo{\pgfuseimage{university-logo}}


\begin{document}

\begin{frame}
  \titlepage
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Outline}
  \tableofcontents[hideallsubsections]
  % You might wish to add the option [pausesections]
\end{frame}


\section{Detrending}

\subsection{Detrending Economic Activity Series}

\begin{frame}{Detrending Economic Activity Series}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure0a.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure0b.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure0c.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure0d.png}
      \includegraphics<5>[height=3in]{figures/figure0e.png}
      \includegraphics<6>[height=3in]{figures/figure0f.png}
      \includegraphics<7>[height=3in]{figures/figure0g.png}
      \includegraphics<8>[height=3in]{figures/figure0h.png}
      \includegraphics<9>[height=3in]{figures/figure0i.png}
      \includegraphics<10>[height=3in]{figures/figure0j.png}
      \includegraphics<11>[height=3in]{figures/figure0k.png}
      \includegraphics<12>[height=3in]{figures/figure0l.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1>{\small Industrial Production}
    \only<2>{\small Nonfarm Payroll Employment}
    \only<3>{\small ISM Manufacturing Survey}
    \only<4>{\small IP Diffusion Index (12-month)}
    \only<5>{\small Unemployment Rate}
    \only<6>{\small Capacity Utilization}
    \only<7>{\small Industrial Production and Trend}
    \only<8>{\small Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Trend}
    \only<9>{\small ISM Manufacturing Survey and Trend}
    \only<10>{\small IP Diffusion Index and Trend}
    \only<11>{\small Unemployment Rate and Trend}
    \only<12>{\small Capacity Utilization and Trend}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}



\section[Estimated Factors]{Results: Estimated Factors}

\begin{frame}[t]{Estimated Factors}
  \tableofcontents[sections={3}]
  \transdissolve[duration=0.7]
\end{frame}

\subsection{Economic Activity Factors}
\begin{frame}{Economic Activity Factors}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure1a.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure1b.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure1c.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure1d.png}
      \includegraphics<5>[height=3in]{figures/figure1e.png}
      \includegraphics<6>[height=3in]{figures/figure1f.png}
      \includegraphics<7>[height=3in]{figures/figure1g.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1>{\small EA Factor \#1}
    \only<2>{\small {\color{blue}EA Factor \#1} and Recessions}
    \only<3>{\small {\color{blue}EA Factor \#1} and Industrial Production}
    \only<4>{\small \color{red}EA Factor \#2}
    \only<5>{\small {\color{red}EA Factor \#2} and Recessions}
    \only<6>{\small {\color{blue}EA Factor \#1} and \color{red}EA Factor \#2}
    \only<7>{\small {\color{red}EA Factor \#2} and ISM Survey}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}


\subsection{Inflation Factors}
\begin{frame}{Inflation Factors}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure2a.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure2b.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure2c.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure2d.png}
      \includegraphics<5>[height=3in]{figures/figure2e.png}
      \includegraphics<6>[height=3in]{figures/figure2f.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1>{\small \color{blue}PR Factor \#1}
    \only<2>{\small {\color{blue}PR Factor \#1} and CPI}
    \only<3>{\small \color{mygreen}PR Factor \#2}
    \only<4>{\small {\color{mygreen}PR Factor \#2} and Price of Oil}
    \only<5>{\small \color{red}PR Factor \#3}
    \only<6>{\small {\color{red}PR Factor \#3} and CRB Commodity Futures}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}


\subsection{Interest Rate Factors}
\begin{frame}{Interest Rate Factors}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure3a.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure3b.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure3c.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure3d.png}
      \includegraphics<5>[height=3in]{figures/figure3e.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1>{\small \color{blue}INT Factor \#1}
    \only<2>{\small {\color{blue}INT Factor \#1} and 10-yr Treasury Yield}
    \only<3>{\small \color{red}INT Factor \#2}
    \only<4>{\small {\color{red}INT Factor \#2} and Yield Curve Slope}
    \only<5>{\small {\color{red}INT Factor \#2} and Recessions}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}


\subsection{International Trade Factors}
\begin{frame}{International Trade Factors}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure3f.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure3g.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure3h.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure3i.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1>{\small \color{blue}TRA Factor \#1}
    \only<2>{\small {\color{blue}TRA Factor \#1} and Exchange Rate}
    \only<3>{\small \color{red}TRA Factor \#2}
    \only<4>{\small {\color{red}TRA Factor \#2} and Trade Balance}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}



\section[The Forecast]{Results: The Model Forecast}

\begin{frame}[t]{The Forecast}
  \tableofcontents[sections={4}]
  \transdissolve[duration=0.7]
\end{frame}

\subsection{The Forecast for Economic Activity}

\begin{frame}{The Forecast for Economic Activity}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure4a.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure4b.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure4c.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure4d.png}
      \includegraphics<5>[height=3in]{figures/figure4hist.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1>{\small \color{blue}EA Factor \#1}
    \only<2-4>{\small {\color{blue}EA Factor \#1} and \color{red}EA Factor \#2}
    \only<5>{\small \color{blue}EA Factor \#1}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{The Forecast for Economic Activity}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure4e.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure4f.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure4i.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure4j.png}
      \includegraphics<5>[height=3in]{figures/figure4k.png}
      \includegraphics<6>[height=3in]{figures/figure4l.png}
      \includegraphics<7>[height=3in]{figures/figure4m.png}
      \includegraphics<8>[height=3in]{figures/figure4n.png}
      \includegraphics<9>[height=3in]{figures/figure4o.png}
      \includegraphics<10>[height=3in]{figures/figure4p.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1-2>{\small Capacity Utilization}
    \only<3-4>{\small Unemployment Rate}
    \only<5-6>{\small Industrial Production}
    \only<7-8>{\small Housing Starts}
    \only<9-10>{\small Existing Home Sales}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}


\subsection{The Forecast for Inflation}

\begin{frame}{The Forecast for Inflation}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure5a.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure5b.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure5c.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure5d.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1>{\small \color{blue}PR Factor \#1}
    \only<2-4>{\small {\color{blue}PR Factor \#1} and \color{red}PR Factor \#2}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{The Forecast for Inflation}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure5e.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure5f.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure5g.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure5h.png}
      \includegraphics<5>[height=3in]{figures/figure5i.png}
      \includegraphics<6>[height=3in]{figures/figure5j.png}
      \includegraphics<7>[height=3in]{figures/figure5k.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1>{\small {Core PCEPI \color{blue}(3-mo chg)}}
    \only<2-4>{\small {Core PCEPI \color{blue}(3-mo chg)} and \color{red} (12-mo chg)}
    \only<5-7>{\small {Core CPI \color{blue}(3-mo chg)} and \color{red} (12-mo chg)}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}


\subsection{The Forecast for the Federal Funds Rate}

\begin{frame}{The Forecast for the Federal Funds Rate}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure6a.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure6b.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure6c.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure6d.png}
      \includegraphics<5>[height=3in]{figures/figure6e.png}
      \includegraphics<6>[height=3in]{figures/figure6f.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1-2>{\small \color{blue}INT Factor \#1}
    \only<3-4>{\small \color{red}INT Factor \#2}
    \only<5-6>{\small Federal Funds Rate}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}


\subsection{The Forecast for International Trade}

\begin{frame}{The Forecast for International Trade}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure6g.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure6h.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure6i.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure6j.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1-2>{\small \color{blue}TRA Factor \#1}
    \only<3-4>{\small \color{red}TRA Factor \#2}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}


\section{Forecast Analysis}

\subsection{Decomposition of the Forecast}
\begin{frame}{Decomposition of the GDP Forecast}
\begin{columns}
  \begin{column}[t]{3.7in}
    \vspace{6.8em}
    \begin{center}
      \vbox to0pt{\vss
        \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure9a.png}
        \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure9b.png}
        \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure9c.png}
        \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure9d.png}
        \includegraphics<5>[height=3in]{figures/figure9e.png}
        \includegraphics<6>[height=3in]{figures/figure9f.png}
        \includegraphics<7>[height=3in]{figures/figure9g.png}
        \includegraphics<8>[height=3in]{figures/figure9h.png}
        \includegraphics<9>[height=3in]{figures/figure9i.png}
        \includegraphics<10>[height=3in]{figures/figure9j.png}
      \vss}
    \end{center}
    \vspace{-1.8in}
    \begin{center}
      \small EA Factor \#1
    \end{center}
  \end{column}
  \begin{column}[t]{1.1in}
    \begin{center}
      \visible<1->{\footnotesize Baseline Forecast assuming
        historical mean for all variables except:}\\
      \vspace{4pt}
      \visible<2->{\footnotesize \color{red}EA Factor \#1}\\
      \visible<3->{\footnotesize \color{orange}EA Factor \#2}\\
      \visible<4->{\footnotesize \color{yellow}PR Factor \#1}\\
      \visible<5->{\footnotesize \color{green}PR Factor \#2}\\
      \visible<6->{\footnotesize \color{mygreen}PR Factor \#3}\\
      \visible<7->{\footnotesize \color{blue}INT Factor \#1}\\
      \visible<8->{\footnotesize \color{violet}INT Factor \#2}\\
      \visible<9->{\footnotesize \color{brown}TRA Factor \#1}\\
      \visible<10->{\footnotesize \color{gray}TRA Factor \#2}\\
      \vspace{35pt}
    \end{center}
  \end{column}
\end{columns}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Decomposition of the Inflation Forecast}
\begin{columns}
  \begin{column}[t]{3.7in}
    \vspace{6.8em}
    \begin{center}
      \vbox to0pt{\vss
        \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure10a.png}
        \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure10b.png}
        \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure10c.png}
        \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure10d.png}
        \includegraphics<5>[height=3in]{figures/figure10e.png}
        \includegraphics<6>[height=3in]{figures/figure10f.png}
        \includegraphics<7>[height=3in]{figures/figure10g.png}
        \includegraphics<8>[height=3in]{figures/figure10h.png}
        \includegraphics<9>[height=3in]{figures/figure10i.png}
        \includegraphics<10>[height=3in]{figures/figure10j.png}
      \vss}
    \end{center}
    \vspace{-1.8in}
    \begin{center}
      \small INT Factor \#1
    \end{center}
  \end{column}
  \begin{column}[t]{1.1in}
    \begin{center}
      \visible<1->{\footnotesize Baseline Forecast assuming
        historical mean for all variables except:}\\
      \vspace{4pt}
      \visible<2->{\footnotesize \color{red}EA Factor \#1}\\
      \visible<3->{\footnotesize \color{orange}EA Factor \#2}\\
      \visible<4->{\footnotesize \color{yellow}PR Factor \#1}\\
      \visible<5->{\footnotesize \color{green}PR Factor \#2}\\
      \visible<6->{\footnotesize \color{mygreen}PR Factor \#3}\\
      \visible<7->{\footnotesize \color{blue}INT Factor \#1}\\
      \visible<8->{\footnotesize \color{violet}INT Factor \#2}\\
      \visible<9->{\footnotesize \color{brown}TRA Factor \#1}\\
      \visible<10->{\footnotesize \color{gray}TRA Factor \#2}\\
      \vspace{35pt}
    \end{center}
  \end{column}
\end{columns}
\end{frame}

\subsection{Sensitivity Analysis of the Forecast}
\begin{frame}{Sensitivity Analysis of the Forecast}
\begin{columns}
  \begin{column}[t]{3.7in}
    \vspace{6.9em}
    \begin{center}
      \vbox to0pt{\vss
        \includegraphics<1-2>[height=3in]{figures/figure7a.png}
        \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure7b.png}
        \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure7c.png}
        \includegraphics<5>[height=3in]{figures/figure7d.png}
        \includegraphics<6>[height=3in]{figures/figure7e.png}
        \includegraphics<7>[height=3in]{figures/figure7f.png}
        \includegraphics<8>[height=3in]{figures/figure7g.png}
        \includegraphics<9>[height=3in]{figures/figure7h.png}
        \includegraphics<10>[height=3in]{figures/figure7i.png}
        \includegraphics<11>[height=3in]{figures/figure7j.png}
      \vss}
    \end{center}
    \vspace{-1.8in}
    \begin{center}
      \small EA Factor \#1
    \end{center}
  \end{column}
  \begin{column}[t]{1.1in}
    \begin{center}
      \visible<1->{\footnotesize Baseline Forecast}\\
      \vspace{15pt}
      \visible<2->{\footnotesize Assuming historical mean for\dots}\\
      \vspace{4pt}
      \visible<3->{\footnotesize \color{red}EA Factor \#1}\\
      \visible<4->{\footnotesize \color{orange}EA Factor \#2}\\
      \visible<5->{\footnotesize \color{yellow}PR Factor \#1}\\
      \visible<6->{\footnotesize \color{green}PR Factor \#2}\\
      \visible<7->{\footnotesize \color{mygreen}PR Factor \#3}\\
      \visible<8->{\footnotesize \color{blue}INT Factor \#1}\\
      \visible<9->{\footnotesize \color{violet}INT Factor \#2}\\
      \visible<10->{\footnotesize \color{brown}TRA Factor \#1}\\
      \visible<11->{\footnotesize \color{gray}TRA Factor \#2}\\
      \vspace{35pt}
    \end{center}
  \end{column}
\end{columns}
\end{frame}


\section{Historical Performance}

\subsection{Historical Analysis of Model Forecasts}
\begin{frame}{Historical Analysis of Model Forecasts: October 2000}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure8a.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure8b.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure8c.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure8d.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1>{\small \color{blue}EA Factor \#1}
    \only<2-3>{\small {\color{blue}EA Factor \#1} and \color{orange}Model Forecast}
    \only<4>{\small {\color{blue}EA Factor \#1}, {\color{orange}Model Forecast}, and 
        \color{red}EA Factor \#2}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Historical Analysis of Model Forecasts: March 1995}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure8e.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure8f.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure8g.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure8h.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1>{\small \color{blue}EA Factor \#1}
    \only<2-3>{\small {\color{blue}EA Factor \#1} and \color{orange}Model Forecast}
    \only<4>{\small {\color{blue}EA Factor \#1}, {\color{orange}Model Forecast}, and 
        \color{red}EA Factor \#2}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Historical Analysis of Model Forecasts: August 1990}
  \vspace{-3.5em}
  \begin{center}
    \vbox to0pt{\vss
      \includegraphics<1>[height=3in]{figures/figure8i.png}
      \includegraphics<2>[height=3in]{figures/figure8j.png}
      \includegraphics<3>[height=3in]{figures/figure8k.png}
      \includegraphics<4>[height=3in]{figures/figure8l.png}
      \includegraphics<5>[height=3in]{figures/figure8m.png}
      \includegraphics<6>[height=3in]{figures/figure8n.png}
      \includegraphics<7>[height=3in]{figures/figure8o.png}
      \includegraphics<8>[height=3in]{figures/figure8p.png}
    \vss}
  \end{center}
  \vspace{-1.7in}
  \begin{overlayarea}{\textwidth}{1.2em}
  \begin{center}
    \only<1>{\small \color{blue}EA Factor \#1}
    \only<2-3>{\small {\color{blue}EA Factor \#1} and \color{orange}Model Forecast}
    \only<4->{\small {\color{blue}EA Factor \#1}, {\color{orange}Model Forecast}, and 
        \color{red}EA Factor \#2}
  \end{center}
  \end{overlayarea}
\end{frame}




\end{document}


